The Death of Expertise

Did I just stop reading a book about expertise and accuracy because I’m so frustrated with all the errors? Yep, sure did. I agree with Nichols’ message - expertise is on the ropes. However, you won’t find new or helpful insights here. I bet that most people interested in this topic already understand the Dunning-Kruger effect and crave more substance than multiple references to Gweneth Paltrow. But, there’s no reason to react to the substance and logic of Nichols’ arguments because he fails to meet the minimum expectations of accuracy. Here are just 3 examples. Nichols quotes from an article which quoted from a 1943 NY Times article. Here’s the quote from the article Nichols cited. “In 1943, after a survey of 7,000 college freshmen found that only six percent could identify the original 13 colonies (with SOME believing that Abraham Lincoln, “our first president,” “emaciated the slaves”), the New York Times lamented the nation’s “appallingly ignorant” youth.” Here’s what Nichols said. “Nor was the early twentieth century a Periclean Age of culture and learning. In 1943, incoming college freshmen—only 6 percent of whom could list the original thirteen colonies—named Abraham Lincoln as the first president and the one who “emaciated [sic] the slaves.” The New York Times saw those results and took a moment from reporting on World War II to lament the nation’s “appallingly ignorant” youth.” See the difference? “Some” plays an important role in how interpret those sentences. It doesn’t appear that Nichols took the time to read the NYT article from 1943. But, I did. 7,000 students were surveyed. Here is the relevant quote from the original article. “More than 100 students said that Lincoln had caused the Civil War. To others, Lincoln was famous because he had “emaciated the slaves…[and] various students said that he was the first President of the United States." How many is “others” or “various"? Nobody knows. But, Nichols' suggests that a significant, if not majority, of students believed Lincoln was the first President. While the specific number is unknown, the context of the articles makes it clear the number was small. Next, Nichols grounds much of his anti-college screed by asserting “the fact of the matter is that more people than ever before are going to college.” But, that’s not a fact. Just go check the NCES data on the Department of Ed. website. Between 2009 and 2019, total undergraduate enrollment decreased 5 percent. The overall immediate college enrollment rate in 2019 was not measureabley different from the rate in 2010. In December 2015, the National Student Clearninghouse Research Center reported college enrollment had dropped 4 years in a row. Finally, he claims that The Day After was the most watched TV program in history when it debuted. That was November 1983. But, 12 million more households had watched the last episode of MASH earlier in the year. Also ahead of the The Day After, a Dallas episode from 1980. And Roots Part VIII had higher ratings and a bigger share, but fewer households, in 1977. these are just a few examples that immeriately jumped out. I’m scarec to think what else I would find if I actually dug in with more purpose.

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The book is very thought-provoking and an important read for anyone who loves the USA. Get it and read it.